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Ervin O'Neal

Comment history

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Apparently the Associated Press thinks that Iowa State is in the Big Ten and not the Big 12. It was the only way they could make it appear that the Big 10 was the strongest basketball conference :)

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Using highly rounded numbers, the current Big 12 media contract is worth $400 million (pays $40 million per team). If losing OU and UT reduces the contract value by 50%, the next contract would be worth $200 million (pays $25 million per team). This isn't that much worse than the current payouts for the Pac 12 and the ACC. The Big 12 can't simply go out and add a bunch of schools if the end result is that each team receives less revenue than if we only added a couple schools. Each schools that we add has to increase the TV revenue by at least $25 million annually or we are going backwards. Some of these schools that are being mentioned above wouldn't raise the revenue by half of that amount based on their current agreements. Many of them already play on weeknights or the very early or very late kickoff times just to improve their ratings by being the only game on TV. More is not always better. Also keep in mind that a lot of these markets being mentioned like Vegas, Denver and Orlando have large populations that aren't originally from that area. I wouldn't imagine that a large % of the TV sets in Orlando would be watching UCF play Texas Tech on a Saturday afternoon that featured a full SEC lineup on other channels.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Arkansas built a new horseshoe stadium on their campus that holds over 76,000 fans. I know a lot of their fans. Not a single one believes that they will win the SEC anytime in the next decade. But they built a new stadium to improve recruiting and to greatly enhance the fan experience. Their stadium is packed and gameday is a can't miss event. Ole Miss hasn't won the SEC since the 60's. But their gameday experience is one of the best in the country. KU has a Top 20 setting for a football stadium. But we don't have a Top 100 stadium. It doesn't have to be massive (55,000 seats is plenty) as long as it is designed to be loud with fans close to the field and have the foundation to enable easy expansion in the future. If KU announced this week that they were seeking donations and drawing up plans to completely replace the football stadium, we would look so much more attractive to the other conferences. The difference in earning $75 million per year in the B1G vs $10 million per year in some small conference will make paying for the stadium much easier. And just think what a full stadium would do for the rest of Lawrence.

If you build it, they (fans, recruits) will come.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Those other conferences have lots of members with terrible football programs. I don't think the SEC is going to kick out Vandy so they have room for Oklahoma State or any other school.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Start building a new football stadium right now!!!! Draw up plans to demolish Memorial stadium and build a new one in the same spot. Show conferences like the B1G that KU is committed to improving the football program as well as the experience for all fans at home games. Time is of the essence before decisions are made by the other conferences that leave us out in the cold wishing we could still attract good basketball and football recruits and keep our coaches. Our current leaders know how building an NFL like stadium in Fayetteville helped Arkansas stay competitive in the SEC. Ours doesn't have to be 76k seats like UA. It doesn't even have to have significantly more seats than it currently holds. Just make balconies to get fans closer to the action as well as providing space for luxury boxes. And build it in a manner that allows for future expansion if needed. But by all means, keep the south end open to the view of the campus.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

The SEC is expected to earn around $1.2 billion ($75 million per school) per year in TV right. Adding the 26+ schools that you mention to the mix wouldn't increase the total TV contract nearly enough. The Big 12 schools were going to make around $40 million each prior to OU and UT leaving. It has been reported that without OU and UT, the expected TV revenue would drop to half of that. So, if the remaining Big 12 schools are worth $20 million each on average and all of the other schools are worth less than that, you would only be adding a total of $500 million to the TV rights per year. The current 16 schools splitting $1.2 billion wouldn't be interested in splitting $1.7 billion 42 ways. They could obviously be brought in with less than an equal share. But that sounds like a nightmare keeping everyone happy. But on the other side, if KU was offered $45 million a year to join the SEC while the original 16 schools got $75 million, it would be better than most of the other options.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Conference scheduling for fore than 16 teams makes it really difficult enough to have each school host a game against each school in the other division in a reasonable amount of time.
Let's assume the SEC puts Bama and Auburn in the East and moves Mizery to the West. The new conference scheduling would include 7 games against your division and 2 games against the 8 teams in the other division. Teams like LSU would go from playing Bama annually and hosting the game every other year to playing Bama every 4 years and hosting them every 8 years. That also requires the schools to have 9 conference games and only 2 non-conference games. Increasing the size of the conference to 18 or 20 just makes it even worse. I'd like to see four conferences of 16 teams. If I am wishful thinking, CU and KU join the B1G (not opposed to ISU, just don't think it makes as much financial sense for the B1G as CU). That would leave 17 schools that are current members of the Big 12 and Pac 12 plus schools like Notre Dame, BYU, etc. available to make up the 4th conference as well as 2 open spots in the ACC. To force the hand of Notre Dame, I'd like to see the 4 enter into scheduling agreements for one of the non-conference games. For instance, the B1G could rotate with the ACC for 1 non-conference game and the SEC and Pac 12 could have a similar agreement. The schools would then only have 1 open game each year to schedule against a lesser opponent. If that happened, Notre Dame would be forced to either join a conference or play a schedule each year that didn't include any opponents from the 4 major conferences. Ultimately, I'd like to see Notre Dame and WVU in the ACC. That would leave the remaining 16 current members and schools like BYU, Houston, etc. available for the new 4th conference. On paper it sounds nice. But I just don't see schools like Cal and Stanford agreeing to be in the same conference as BYU, TCU and Baylor. Then you throw in the California law that prohibits their state schools from traveling to a state like Kansas with laws that protect those that discriminate against the LBGT community on campuses, and this combined conference would have some major hurdles.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Completely agree. The only path should be to start from scratch in the same location.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Sounds like exactly what Girod and the other 7 school leaders should be saying publicly. But behind the scenes, be ready to make an announcement concerning where each school is headed just after we take the exit fees from OU and UT.

STL_Jayhawk (Ervin O'Neal) says...

Matt, I agree with you on UT and OU leaving in the summer of 2022. If the Big 12 allows them to leave in 12 months instead of 18 (impossible to leave in early January as you mentioned), the cost to each school really isn't significant (at least to them). If they stay for the last 3 seasons thru 2025, each would earn around a total of $120 million. If they go to the SEC for those 3 seasons, they could each earn say $180 million in total. After paying the Big 12 the exit fee of $80 million, they still net $100 million which is only $20 million less than had they stayed in the Big 12. Imagine if they can settle with the Big 12 for say $60 million, it would be essentially a break even for them.

If four or five other schools also decide to leave next summer, I am guessing the conference couldn't remain in any form and no school would have to pay any exit fees. It will be a good poker game to see who has negotiated a deal with another conference but isn't letting it be known until they have collected exit fees from the other schools.